Mar 09 2009
This wild and crazy playoff race - the East…….
As the season wound down toward the playoffs last year following the trade deadline, I remember thinking to myself that it was the closest Eastern Conference race I could remember. Sure, there had always been races for spots that would come right down to the wire. But until the last few days, the possibility existed last season for just about any team between 6 and 10 to end up in any spot among that mix. Case in point, the Buffalo Sabres had a chance to be as high as seventh going into the last two games, yet finished tenth despite winning their season finale.
And as it turns out, this season is even more hotly contested. Four points separate fifth from tenth following this weekend’s games. And since most games are in-conference contests at this point in the season, avoiding streaks of poor play is crucial.
The Montreal Canadiens have struggled to a 14-15-1 record since Jan. 1, dropping them from a tight battle with Boston for the top spot into the midst of the 5th-10th muck. They currently sit in 5th, but with serious questions about All-Star goaltender Carey Price’s ability to carry the team, they may have to pin their hopes on equally unproven Jaroslav Halak.
The New York Rangers seem to have stopped their free fall since bringing John Tortorella on board to replace Tom Renney, compiling a 3-1-1 record since. However, this team has struggled badly to score goals (14 in their last 3 games notwithstanding), and I don’t think the addition of Nik Antropov is enough to push them over the top.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are downright scary right now. Their six straight wins have catapulted them back into the thick of the playoff race, and they look as good right now as they did at any point during last season’s run to the Cup finals. Their trade deadline acquisitions of Bill Guerin from the Islanders and Craig Adams off waivers might just have given them the grit they’ve been missing all season long. Look out upper seeds - wherever the Pens land, the top seed facing them is in danger.
The Carolina Hurricanes are another team surging at the right moment, having won 8 out of their last 11 games since a 3-0 shutout victory in Buffalo on Feb. 15 that many consider to be a turning point for their season. They are scoring goals in bunches, with 46 in this 11 game stretch, including a 9-spot against the hapless Lightning this past Saturday. The question for them will be can their defense and goaltending step up - only the Canes and Rangers among the playoff contenders have a negative goals for/against differential.
The wild cards at this point are the Florida Panthers and the Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres were cruising along, fairly comfortable in the 7-spot, with designs on moving upward, until a Gomez missile vs. the Rangers took out starting goalie Ryan Miller. Backup Patrick Lalime has filled in admirably, but it seems as if the team has gone into a real funk since Miller went down, playing poorly in front of their veteran backup and struggling badly to score goals. A two game surge following the trade deadline where the Sabres put up 5-1 wins against both the Canadiens and Coyotes was followed by a dreadful otuing against their nemesis the Ottawa Senators in which the team completely forgot how to play sound NHL defense. They’ve put themselves in a hole, but are well-equipped to make the move out of it if they simply commit to putting the work in. The Panthers, meanwhile, have put up 30 wins against only 21 total losses since winning only 4 of their first 13 games this year to put themselves solidly in the picture for the first time since 2000. They play a sound defensive game with strong penalty killing and rock solid goaltending, three key ingredients for success down the stretch. Offense is an issue for the Panthers, a problem that is augmented by a dreadful PP, second worst in the conference behind the offensively impotent Rangers.
My predictions? Look for the Penguins to continue their hot streak, winding up in the 7 spot and upsetting the Devils ine the first round. The Rangers and Hurricanes will fall out of the picture - despite their recent streaks, both teams have fundamental flaws that will keep them home in late April. The Canadiens will continue their inconsistent play, holding on to a playoff spot but sliding down to 6, earning them the right to be thumped by Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals in the first round. Florida slides up to 5 and a seven game series with the Flyers ensues, where Philly finds just enough consistency to pull it out. The Sabres move into the eight spot, where they will stand a chance at upsetting the Bruins, but that result will depend on the health of Ryan Miller - I don’t think Lalime can hold it together come playoff time.
Feel free to save this post to gloat over if all of this blows up in my face.
